学术视界 | 智库视角下国外数字经济发展趋势及对策研究

智库视角下国外数字经济发展趋势及对策研究

吴静^1,2，张凤^1,2

（1.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，北京100190；

2.中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院，北京100049）

摘要：近年来，全球数字经济进入全面爆发与竞争博弈期。密切关注国外数字经济发展趋势，成为我国保持数字经济竞争力的重要支柱，也成为智库研究和服务国家宏观决策的重要内容之一。面对当前智库开展数字经济趋势研究中存在的规范化方法和政策证据使用不足问题，本文以智库双螺旋法为指导，从数字经济技术与基建、经济与社会、规则与治理三个维度认识数字经济内涵本质，并结合数字化发展在国家内部、国家之间、全球治理三个尺度的侧重点差异，提出了数字经济三大维度×三个尺度的发展趋势二维分析框架。在此框架下，研究聚焦美国、欧盟等主要国家机构和智库，收集数字经济相关政策、报告等文本资料，结合关键词分析揭示了当前全球层面以及美国、欧盟的数字经济发展热点，进而在数字经济发展趋势的二维分析框架下，研判形成了国外数字经济发展的9大趋势。最终，文章审视了我国数字经济发展面临的问题，并提出对策建议。

关键词：智库双螺旋法；数字经济；发展趋势；政策分析

主要研究结论：从双螺旋法MIPS逻辑层次法看，智库问题的解决还应进一步对问题的影响与政策展开研究，最终形成解决方案，从而发挥智库服务宏观决策的咨询支撑作用。因此，为更好地、有针对性为我国数字经济发展提出对策建议，在国外数字经济发展趋势研判基础之上，本文进一步分别从技术与基建、经济与社会、规则与治理三个维度检视我国数字经济发展面临的问题，提出应对策略。

数字技术与基建发展方面的问题与对策

数字化发展的竞争根本上是数字技术的竞争，提升数字技术创新能力及数字基础设施建设是数字化发展的根基。目前我国面临的数字技术与基建问题主要包括：（1）我国在量子计算、人工智能、5G领域在全球具有领先地位，但在高端装备、核心工业软件、关键基础技术对外依赖程度高，由此带来的数据“黑箱操作”和安全风险问题日益突出。（2）在国外数字经济愈发强化网络安全的背景下，我国网络安全防护形势也十分严峻，特别是随着工业互联网深化发展，大量生产装备入网将引发网络信息安全与数据泄露等安全问题，严重威胁经济社会安全乃至国家安全。（3）目前我国正大力建设5G等新基建，但新基建既有公共品属性，也需要市场运营机制，建设资金来源已成为新基建建设挑战问题之一。

针对上述问题，应加快数字化技术研发，有序推进新型基础设施建设。（1）加强数字科技研发和关键核心技术攻关。系统梳理我国数字技术短板清单，整合产学研各方力量，根据数字技术“卡脖子”清单，加快破解数字核心技术受制于人的困境，保障数字产业安全。（2）加强网络安全防护建设。构建自主可控的工业互联网技术体系，开展工业互联网安全风险监测，提高安全隐患识别与化解能力。（3）创新数字化新型基础设施建设投融资模式。充分发挥市场机制，以PPP、BOT等多种投融资模式，鼓励社会资本参与新基建建设与运营。

数字化经济与社会发展方面的问题与对策

受疫情驱动，全球数字化转型提档加速，但目前我国数字经济仍面临发展不充分、不平衡的问题。（1）中小企业数字化转型步伐缓慢。广大中小企业受制于理念意识、业务基础、资金实力、应用解决方案供给不足等因素，积极性还未充分调动。（2）农业、工业领域数字化转型不充分。基于大数据、人工智能等数字技术综合应用下的农业、工业转型赋能不足，多停留于信息管理的数字化初级阶段。（3）我国地区间、人群间数字鸿沟仍然显著。2021年我国农村网民数量约为 2.97 亿，城镇网民规模为 7.14 亿，呈现出明显的城乡差距。从人群看，60岁以上的老年人中，仍然有50%以上的人没有使用过互联网服务。

针对上述问题，应全面深化数字化转型，弥合数字鸿沟。（1）持续推动中小企业数字化转型。加快构建面向细分行业的产业互联网数字平台，加强企业数字化转型经验推广，以“上云用数赋智”为抓手解决中小企业数字化转型的技术和融资困难，降低中小企业数字化转型门槛。（2）深化传统产业数字化转型。以数字化转型实现生产端和消费端有机衔接，鼓励C2M等新模式发展，探索形成产业链、供应链深度耦合的数字化升级新路径。（3）弥合农村地区和老年人群体数字鸿沟。提高农村居民、老年人群体数字素养，以低技术门槛、易渗透的数字经济模式，拓展各群体对数字化消费新模式、新业态的接触面，促进全民共享数字红利。 

数字化规则与治理方面的问题与对策

在国外数字经济发展治理与竞争显著加剧的背景下，我国数字经济治理面临的主要问题包括：（1）目前我国政府数字治理能力和监管水平相对于快速更迭的数字技术仍略显滞后，传统的治理方式和治理手段难以应对。（2）全球数字主权竞争趋向于基于数字技术的地缘政治竞争，我国亟须统筹技术、经济、制度、安全多方利益，把握主动权，抢占发展制高点。（3）国际数字经济治理规则竞争日趋激烈，我国目前正积极争取加入CPTPP（全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协议）、DEPA（数字经济伙伴关系协定）等多边自贸协定，但未来在全球层面的数字经济规则制定中，仍面临规则标准、意识形态等多方挑战。

An analysis of the trend of digital economy in foreign countries and China′s countermeasures from the perspective of think tank

Wu Jing^1,2, Zhang Feng^1,2

(1. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; 

2. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

Abstract:In recent years, the global digital economy has entered a period full of outbreak and competition. Paying close attention to the trend of digital economy in foreign countries has become an important pillar for China to maintain the competitiveness of the digital economy, and it is also one of the important topics of think tanks′ researches in serving the country′s macro decision-making. However, there are still two challenges currently for think tanks in carrying out researches on digital economy in foreign countries. One challenge is to transition from empirical to scientific research, which is necessary to break through the limitations of relying solely on expert knowledge to avoid one-sided research and judgment. The other challenge is to transition from pure academic-oriented to integrative studies fitting both academic and practical requirements, which must give full play to the role of policy, strategy and other materials in trend analysis, so as to bridge the gap between academic research and policy practice. 

Facing the critical period of rapid development and dynamic evolution of the digital economy, it is necessary to carry out research that combines the subjective judgment of experts with the analysis of objective materials, supported by the methodology of think tank research. To this end, this paper adopts the double helix methodology of think tanks as the theoretical and practical guide of the research, which is proposed by Prof. Pan Jiaofeng at the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The double helix methodology of think tanks consists of DIIS helix and MIPS helix, in which the DIIS abstracts operational steps of think tank research as data collection, information revelation, intelligence synthesis, and solution formation and the MIPS refines the logic process of think tank research as mechanism analysis, impact analysis, policy analysis and solution formation. Guided by the double helix methodology of think tanks, this paper extracts the mechanism of the digital economy into three dimensions: digital economy technology and infrastructure, digital economy and society, and digital regulation and governance. Combining the differences in the focus of digital development in three scales of intra-country, inter-country, and global governance, a two-dimensional analysis framework for the development trend of the digital economy with three dimensions × three scales is proposed. 

Under this framework, the research focuses on agencies and think tanks from major countries, such as the United States and the European Union, collecting textual materials such as policies and reports related to the digital economy, and develops keyword analysis to reveal the current digital economy development hotspots in worldwide and the United States and the European Union. The results show that the hotspots of the digital economy in the United States mainly include strengthening digital infrastructure, promoting the digital transformation of manufacturing, developing digital assets, and competing for the global digital trade and digital currency system. While the hotspots of digital economy in the European Union mainly cover promoting the EU digital single market, boosting digital infrastructure construction, cultivating digital skills and accelerating the digital transformation of SMEs. 

Based on the identification of hotspots in digital economy, 9 major trends in the development of foreign digital economy are recognized under the framework of two-dimensional analysis of digital economic development trends, namely (1) artificial intelligence, blockchain, and quantum computing are hotspots for technological innovation and application, (2) network and information security defenses are strengthened, (3) global digital connectivity receives increasingly attentions, (4) digital consumption is accelerated significantly, (5) the digital economy development is deepening; (6) digital inclusion contributes to global sustainable development; (7) data governance is strengthened; (8) digital sovereignty competition is gaining more awareness; (9) the conflict of digital economy governance rules continues. 

In this context, this paper finally examines the problems faced by the digital economy development of China and puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions. 

In terms of digital technology and infrastructure development, it is suggested (1) to strengthen digital technology research and development and key technology breakthroughs, (2) to strengthen network security protection and construction, and (3) to innovate investment and financing models for the construction of the digital new infrastructures. 

In terms of digital economy and society, it is suggested (1) to promote the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, (2) to deepen the digital transformation of traditional industries, and (3) to bridge the digital divide for rural areas and the elderly. 

In terms of digital economy regulation and governance, it is suggested (1) to increase the application of digital technology in government governance, (2) to support Chinese companies to expand overseas markets and enhance the globalization of the digital economy, and (3) to participate in the formulation of global digital governance regulations.

Key words:double helix methodology of think tanks; digital economy; development trend; policy analysis

引用本文：吴静,张凤.智库视角下国外数字经济发展趋势及对策研究[J].科研管理,2022,43(8):32-39.

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